As of March 2025, the South African government bond yield curve remains steeply upward-sloping — a configuration that has persisted for much of the past decade. This article explains what the curve is signalling about growth, inflation, and monetary policy expectations.
Current Curve Shape (March 2025)
- R2030 (10-year) ≈ 10.15%
- R186 (3-year) ≈ 8.45%
- Spread 10y–3y ≈ 170 bps (near historical wides)
Historical Context & Drivers
Inflation Risk Premium
SA’s history of above-target inflation keeps long-term yields elevated
Fiscal Risk
Higher debt-to-GDP trajectory adds term premium
Foreign Ownership
Non-resident holdings >40% amplify global rate sensitivity
Conclusion
The steep SA yield curve continues to price in elevated long-term inflation and fiscal risk rather than strong growth expectations. A genuine growth-driven steepening would require credible fiscal consolidation and sustained sub-5.5% CPI outcomes.
Educational content only — not investment advice.